S5E18 Probability on Spring Break


In this week’s episode, Patrick and Greg play with some of the basics of probability in the context of some classic, fun, and often counterintuitive examples.  Along the way they also discuss arguments with relatives, a feel for the roulette wheel, Xeroxing your butt, “The coin has spoken.”, Quantitude Booq Qlub, the Bellagio Fountains, Clooney and Pitt look-alikes, the Flippier, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern, Monty Hall, Ferraris and goats, the birthday problem, how to carve an elephant, and pick-6 lotteries.

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  • S4E16: Discovering the False Discovery Rate
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  • S3E16: Your COVID Rapid Test Result: Are You Positive You’re Positive?
  • S2E10: Type I Terror

Suggested Readings

Bertsekas, D., & Tsitsiklis, J. N. (2008). Introduction to probability (Vol. 1). Athena Scientific.

Borja, M. C., & Haigh, J. (2007). The birthday problem. Significance4(3), 124-127.

Dekking, F. M. (2005). A Modern Introduction to Probability and Statistics: Understanding why and how. Springer Science & Business Media.

Gardner, M. (1959). Mathematical Games, Scientific American, 201, 180–182

Gill, R. D. (2011). The Monty Hall problem is not a probability puzzle*(It’s a challenge in mathematical modelling). Statistica Neerlandica65(1), 58-71.

Krauss, S., & Wang, X. T. (2003). The psychology of the Monty Hall problem: discovering psychological mechanisms for solving a tenacious brain teaser. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General132(1), 3.

vos Savant, M. (1990). Ask Marilyn, Parade, 9 .

Monty Hall Simulations





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