In this week’s episode, Patrick and Greg play with some of the basics of probability in the context of some classic, fun, and often counterintuitive examples. Along the way they also discuss arguments with relatives, a feel for the roulette wheel, Xeroxing your butt, “The coin has spoken.”, Quantitude Booq Qlub, the Bellagio Fountains, Clooney and Pitt look-alikes, the Flippier, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern, Monty Hall, Ferraris and goats, the birthday problem, how to carve an elephant, and pick-6 lotteries.
Related Episodes
- S4E16: Discovering the False Discovery Rate
- S4E13: Model-Based Power Analysis: The Power of *What*
- S3E16: Your COVID Rapid Test Result: Are You Positive You’re Positive?
- S2E10: Type I Terror
Suggested Readings
Bertsekas, D., & Tsitsiklis, J. N. (2008). Introduction to probability (Vol. 1). Athena Scientific.
Borja, M. C., & Haigh, J. (2007). The birthday problem. Significance, 4(3), 124-127.
Dekking, F. M. (2005). A Modern Introduction to Probability and Statistics: Understanding why and how. Springer Science & Business Media.
Gardner, M. (1959). Mathematical Games, Scientific American, 201, 180–182
Gill, R. D. (2011). The Monty Hall problem is not a probability puzzle*(It’s a challenge in mathematical modelling). Statistica Neerlandica, 65(1), 58-71.
Krauss, S., & Wang, X. T. (2003). The psychology of the Monty Hall problem: discovering psychological mechanisms for solving a tenacious brain teaser. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 132(1), 3.
vos Savant, M. (1990). Ask Marilyn, Parade, 9 .
Monty Hall Simulations
https://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/2021/montyhall/Monty.html
https://math.andyou.com/tools/montyhallsimulator/montysim.htm